Our industry’s collective wisdom enters 2019 FEARLESS “prepared for anything”.
Many acknowledge we are overdue for a slowdown. Few believe, if it occurs, it will equal past recessions.
The overwhelming perception is there’s money to be made in 2019, but only for those who work harder and smarter.
“I think 2019 is going to be a challenge for the general, run of the mill Real Estate professional. It will take drive and hard work to achieve success in 2019.”
Insights on the overall economy and assessment of the job market spewed with negativity, but perspectives changed dramatically when discussing their career, their company’s hiring, or the prospects for the area where they live.
“There is no “talent” shortage. I have not seen one shred of evidence of this in the day-to-day. And no firm data points to it (rather it’s the opposite, like WPR vs. the Unemployment rate).”
“Big opportunities if you work with people who are under pressure to execute … opportunity zones will become in vogue for the next 2 yrs. … all governments will be selling real property.”
Bracing for a downturn. Is it a self-fulfilling prophecy?
“I believe next year will be another year of good growth. There will be companies slowing down but I believe those that stay bullish will capitalize on others choosing to delay or slow down.”
Too much capital concerned many.
“Oversupply of capital seeking fewer “safe” investments will continue to squeeze margins and force many lenders seeking higher yield to take on riskier investments… When trouble starts, I fear we won’t have the right resources with recession experience…”
“I am cautious about credit standards due to the amount of capital in the market.”
“The market is starting to show signs of capital going after dumb deals. The market seems frothy. Interest Rates are going to play a huge role in the year ahead.”
Embracing a downturn.
“I run a vertically integrated group, Real Estate Private Equity, Hedge Fund, and Design-Build firms … We are expecting a significant global slowdown in 2019 and are sitting on cash to benefit from over-optimistic developers and investors who are over-leveraged. It is estimated 30% of S&P 500 firms are Zombie Companies, surviving on borrowed funds, and won’t survive a down-turn. This may be the pause that refreshes and returns the markets to a long-term growth based on fundamentals.”
“It’ll be a strange year for RE hiring. On one hand there is a talent shortage. On the other, the consensus is we’re bearing the top of the market. The former would indicate increased hiring or increasing pay. The latter would indicate some pullback on payroll as we go into the downturn. My company is doing a bit of both, so it will be interesting to see how it plays out for the industry.”
“Adding value will be Paramount to becoming sticky to clients. In a time of abundance, you stand out by going beyond the contract and adding inherent value that is hard to quantify, such as opening your network of financial connections, like lenders. In a downturn, adding value through a cross-functional team will make the owner’s/LL’s dollar go farther.”
“Right now, at my company I literally do the work of 2 people and have inadequate support.”
“I see standardization taking over real estate at tech companies. Tech nerds see real estate differently – as a commodity that should be standardized, categorized and made instantly available upon demand.”
65% of our respondents did not take all their vacation in the past year. A survey respondent pointed out, “well-being has usurped work-life balance concerns”. The office sector is adding more and more amenities to increase the sense of well-being while at work.
“AI can’t negotiate yet.”
“More information is available, but the validity of the information is still questionable.”
“I am a believer and I am sure AI and ioT will help us and the RE FM market”
58% of the survey said their company found it difficult last year to find qualified hires. Others questioned whether “full-employment” disregarded those with over 30 years’ experience, or whether HR technology was missing talent.
“CRE hiring is getting so difficult that companies are being forced to hire woefully unqualified people. It is “dumbing down” the industry.”
“Many companies are trying to consolidate spending (payroll) by merging jobs together and creating job descriptions that simply do not exist. As a result, it has become difficult to fill them.”
“I think that scanning resumes and spewing out “matches” misses talented people in the market.”
“Many cases of underemployment due to age discrimination.”
“Been interviewed 44 times in the last 3 years across 25 different companies. My age is the main reason. One interviewer even made a negative comment on my age.”
“Great Recession Generation”
10 years ago, The Great Recession hit. Few entry level jobs were to be found and CRE hiring did not begin in earnest until 2012. The impact is being seen today of the missing “Great Recession Generation” with 7 to 10 years of experience.
“I am always open to new career opportunities but plan to stay with the same company for the future. Good to keep in tune with what is going on in the marketplace.”
“I enjoy seeing job openings in other cities. Widens my horizons!”
More thoughts and insights on the year ahead…in your own words:
Positive / Growth
“Will be more INTERNATIONAL.”
Employment, wage growth, and strong consumer spending coupled with relatively healthy supply (not over built generally speaking) will keep commercial real estate sales and leasing activity similar to 2018… Should be another good year. Headwinds that could slow down activity are interest rate movement, national debt, and any combination of geo-political issues that flare up over the coming year.
Gonna be a big year for WeWork
We must continue to reinvent retail and balance internet sales vs brick and mortar.
This should be a great year with moderate growth of revenue and increase in salaries, bonuses.
There are economic headwinds that concern me, but I hope to continue to grow and expand my career, as well as get better at giving back.
The light industrial (warehouse & distribution) remains to look very promising.
So far, very strong indications by the current client base. We know what’s going in advance.
RE development, 2019 feels a lot like 2018, 2017, 2016 Growth continues with some clouds forming Property taxes and rising payroll costs squeeze performance
Pretty bleak in the retail sector. Lack of capital to take on new projects just to maintain the status quo
Positive outlook, contracts will increase revenue,
Optimist economy, but not due to current President. Positive changes done in the last 10 years are driving economic trends.
My biggest concern is that trade war bluster may upset the markets, tipping us into a downward economic trajectory.
market slowing, infra spending slowing, lower volume with increases in productivity = cream rising
It will be a politically confusing year coming up with divided gov’t, but the economy looks stable, as do interest rates (for now). The Grand Junction, CO market is diversifying its economy and is benefiting from the growth on the ‘front range’ (Ft Collins to Pueblo, CO) markets in CO. I have been instrumental in putting financing together for a $24mm deal on 144-unit, mkt rate apt project – the first new project of its kind in GJ in over 12 years!
Increased competition and market volatility expected in 2019, but I’m reasonably sanguine about CRE industry prospects and the broader domestic economic outlook until after the 2020 general election.
In the Houston, TX market, I see continued positive growth.
I’m in residential real estate sales with a lot of great experience (in my opinion) and a very good income, but the jobs posted on your site typically need more niche experience in commercial or finance than I hold. Overall, I feel SelectLeaders provide great information/opportunities and hopefully in late 2019 (or near future) I’ll switch into commercial. Thank you!
I think the Real Estate Market will have gains in the year 2019 in Arizona.
I think 2019 is going to be a challenge for the general, run of the mill Real Estate professional. It will take drive and hard work to achieve success in 2019
I look forward to another positive year in real estate. I expect the market to soften relative to the market highs over the past years but nowhere close to a crash or reversion. I am cautious about credit standards due to the amount of capital in the market.
I hope there are more opportunities for low 6 figure employees
I feel like there is a large talent void for senior level project management individuals to manage complicated expensive projects and that despite my age and tenure at my current company I am going to reach out to several peers to investigate a new position that will be more challenging than my current one is.
I enjoy seeing job openings in other cities. Widens my horizons
I am looking forward in investing and doing wholesaling.
Hoping 2019 continues to bring a strong economy with steady growth. Hoping the coming interest rate creases and the tariff policy does not stifle this growth. I think the job market will continue to be a strong candidate market and real wage growth will continue, especially for the most critical of roles that drive revenue and data analytics.
Good job resource. Easy to navigate. Thanks!
Going to be a bumpy ride….
Despite a possible recession looming, our industry is poised for growth. Therefore, I believe that it is possible that employers will have an easier time recruiting to the ranks of real estate professionals especially in the area of single-family property management.
Clearly at the top of the market as bid ask spreads solidify until sellers realize the boom is winding down. Even if things slow a bit, construction prices will remain high as the labor pool among subcontractors remains small and there’s no solution for the near term. Cap rate will expand slowly in the face of higher interest rates though great assets will continue to achieve premiums.
Change continues in real estate and MPC development/growth/amenity offerings. Market segments will continue to splinter a bit more. A&D money will be more expensive; as will mortgage money; economy will continue to grow but at a slower pace; Product Pricing will continue to edge upward but at a slower pace (land price increases being a significant reason); smaller, intra-urban MPC’s will continue to be well received as long as the Developer is smart about amenity offerings; and Life Will Go On.
Busy! More outsourced services.
Big opportunities if you work with people who are under pressure to execute…opportunity zones will become in vogue for next 2 yrs…target businesses will be expanding while others contracting…all governments will be selling real property. Shuffle with international buyers, Chinese sellers Canadian buyers. Not worried about interest rates, construction costs will stabilize…Arizona will lead the nation in growth in 2019.
As we can’t foresee future things and situations, the best is to focus on working hard and make the best of it. Change job only if for better.
Adding value will be Paramount to becoming sticky to clients. In a time of abundance, you stand out by going beyond the contracts and adding inherent value that is hard to quantify, such as: opening your network of financial connections like lenders. In a downturn, adding value through cross functional team will make the owner’s/LL’s dollar go farther.
2019 will continue the CRE growth, especially with more institutions and individuals realizing the advantages of RE investment. Finding truly qualified and capable individuals will continue to be a challenge, as companies learn they need to meet market salaries and benefits.
The economy should remain healthy and the federal reserve will leave interest rates alone for the near term. The job market will remain tight over the next year
I need an acquisitions job
“New York City real estate property management still lags in technology. Only certain owners have embraced technology.”
IT will continue to take over valuation and building management. New training should focus on using IT, programming, debugging, and looking for errors.
We are approaching 2019 as if we were a new company because there have been so many changes in technology in our company it seems like a brand-new job.
The year ahead will be tough – we are already seeing a lot of layoffs in the car manufacturing business, and the ripple-through effect. The stock market is uncertain and there are lots of scary issues on the horizon…the unpredictability of President Trump, global terrorism, and data breaches…it seems like most companies are unable to manage the privacy and security around the data they have…I predict a massive data breach/hack that will jeopardize our economy.
The whole real estate technology industry, and its potential impact, is far overplayed and overexaggerated. It will be helpful in allowing professionals to be more efficient with their time but is not remotely close to having any material impact whatsoever.
The technical field is weak, many candidates have degrees, but few have technical or hands-on skills.
New York City real estate property management still lags in technology. Only certain owners have embraced technology. The large third-party management firms have only changed in their financial accounting software and payroll processes. No great initiative has taken place to give great tech tools to property management staff who are onsite.
I’m seeing more focus on well-being as opposed to just work/life balance. Yes, AI is taking on more and more, but it cannot take on emotion, empathy, etc.
I see standardization taking over real estate at tech companies. Tech nerds see real estate differently – as a commodity that should be standardized, categorized and made instantly available upon demand.
“Micro Transport is going to massively disrupt real estate decision making.”
My insight is trouble ahead for the commercial real estate business. Commercial real estate continues to be over built with vacant 1,000,000 + sq. ft buildings everywhere. More noticeable is the accelerated pace of vacant commercial builds over the past two years. Sometimes I feel like the Omega Man, where are all the people/business, whatever is supposed to be happening is not happening. Like in war games. Remember when the Dr notes you’re watching a computer enhanced hallucination, we are in a Fed Induced Financial/Economic Hallucination. Seems like no one any to report on that. My 2 cents. I can’t tell you what is wrong, but I can guarantee you that something is wrong.
Salaries need to increase to keep up with inflation
Penned-up capital will be “chasing deals”
Onward and upward – 2019 is going to be a great year for me!
More competition from liquidity providers. 2019 will be like 2018
Micro Transport is going to massively disrupt real estate decision making.
It’s likely a year of big change. Fundamentals are declining, and it’s likely that the market will be seeing stress ahead. Real Estate moves very slowly, unlike the stock market with pricing-by-the minute. It takes months to figure out a property is in distress. You miss the debt payment, but it’s not until 25 days later that it shows up… and so on.
I believe next year will be another year of good growth. There will be companies slowing down but I believe those that stay bullish will capitalize on others choosing to delay or slow down.
Housing is too expensive. Not sure what I will do.
The best real estate companies have stripped their models down to limit the amount the vast majority of the people in the field can obtain. Even still real estate sales people themselves and in customer service are still a primary part of the business. That position Still exists to provide somebody to complain too. This includes property managers. Anyone who starts in the real estate field going through customer service or low-level processing of real estate transactions will and should never expect to obtain a job that really works in real estate. These are customer facing Jobs equivalent to what you would see in retail. I still don’t think they will go away, if it will get a slight bump in salary. But there should be no expectations as larger companies sick to hire only the most qualified business candidates and have no desire to bring on board customer facing employees or allow them to grow within their companies. This is common practice among a major brokerage companies like Berkshire Hathaway, Century 21, to Property management companies like equity, Avalon, Camden, to Real estate tech companies like Zillow, costar, redfin, fundrise. There will be no future for those who have a passion for the industry to get into major companies that have an impact. In all fairness they do not possess the skills in any abundance to obtain those type of positions. However, the aforementioned companies have no desire to hire these people or bring them on board at any time. I previously worked in the customer facing a portion of real estate, now I’ve handled primarily commercial leasing. I can say that the customer facing position is usually the least paid and the hardest part of the positions I’ve had in real estate. Truthfully Compensation must increase, for positions at the lower level, as things shift heavily towards lavish management compensation. This is not to say anything of those working in higher positions, for instance my current role is that of higher management in high dollar commercial leasing. I am in Boston and procurement negotiations, and real estate are the number 1, 2, and 4 skills in surplus here according to linked in, however the three biggest skills most in demand Are things like oral communication, leadership, business management. This quite literally fits with the mold. I have a portion of those skills most in demand or three traits, Most indicative of people between the ages of 45 to 65. These are people in positions who have had them a long time and are nearing retirement. This overall skills shortage would coincide with the following generations ability to take those rolls, however there is a deficit in terms of years worked Causing stagnation in this job market segmentation.
“I’m still looking for a better job, but It seems people say I’m over qualified, but in reality, I’m too old for their position.”
I think that scanning resumes and spewing out “matches” misses really talented people in the market.
We will have to continue to pay for talent. Flexible schedules/locations for work are an advantage.
We added more head count in 2018 than any prior year since our firm’s creation as a result of our growth in 2017.
Unemployed and 64…finding it difficult to land a job.
To continue the excellent service, I have always provided and push for career growth.
This will continue to be a challenging year to hire and retain employees.
There’s plenty of talent out there but unfortunately real estate firms are ignoring older more seasoned talent. A considerable number of my former colleagues over 50-yrs old are available, but no one will talk to them.
There is no labor shortage in Florida.
There is no “talent” shortage. And there is no firm data point to it (rather it’s the opposite, like WPR vs. the Unemployment rate). I have not seen one shred of evidence of this in the day-to-day.
The problem I see it current employers FAIL to follow up with the applicants. Good qualified people get shunted aside or never looked at because the BS automated resume software programs and not as good as most HR people think. How can someone with extensive experience, who applies for hundreds of jobs, never get looked at or have anyone contact them to set up an interview? The current system if flawed and I doubt will ever be fixed.
Stagnant inefficiencies continue to impact hiring processes in many sectors.
People say finding talented employees is hard. As a talented and driven employee who wants to change into a more challenging and dynamic role with a more respected company, I would say that people compliant about finding talent aren’t willing to PAY for talent. Wage stagnation is making good people refuse to make a change bc there is no benefit to take a pay cut or lateral pay for more responsibility. This is the main issue. We are being asked to do more for less and that is going to result in a bottleneck as it already has. Right now, at my company I literally do the work of 2 people and have inadequate support. At some point companies need to pay people what they are worth, and they will get good people. Until then it will be a revolving door everywhere or we will have unqualified people in place or disgruntled workers.
Our company hired McKinsey last year in order to boost earnings and be more attractive in equity and debt markets. They completed round 1 of a RIF last year laying off roughly 400 professionals to decrease layers of management or to outsource some functions. It appears they’re not done with layoffs. As it relates to me, I have a very specialized role and am a ‘senior’ so hope not to be RIFd for those reasons. I am not in a management role.
My company has not changed from the attitude that employees are expendable. They have not even given a cost of living increase in the 7 years I have been with them Humans are not resources they are consumables.
Many companies are trying to consolidate spending (payroll) by merging jobs together and creating job descriptions that simply do not exist. As a result, it has become difficult to fill them. There seems to be a dis-connect that people cannot learn new skills or cross pollinate job skills. Additionally, ageism is still a big issue and being ignored in many sectors of the industry. Seems to me that the experience and wisdom could merit some real benefit but being ignored by many.
Many cases of underemployment due to age discrimination.
Labor remains incredibly tight. I am seeing younger employees op to the director level jump around for salary in an unstainable way. I.e. when they cycle ends their jobs will end.
It’ll be a strange year for RE hiring. While on one hand there is a talent shortage, on the other the consensus is that we’re bearing the top of the market. The former would indicate increased hiring or increasing pay, while the latter would indicate some pullback on payroll as we go into the downturn. My company is doing a bit of both so it will be interesting to see how it plays out for the industry.
I’m still looking for a better job, but It seems people say I’m over qualified, but in reality, I’m too old for their position
I think opportunities will be tighter, there is so much competition right now and there will be more next year with less jobs
I left my job recently and have been looking for jobs over the past 2 months. I have applied for 200+ jobs and only received 1 response. Anybody who says they can’t find people to fill jobs isn’t looking very hard.
I left a real estate investment firm for an alternative investment firm and am very happy with that decision. The culture is significantly better and there are much more women at the company.
I feel there a lot of companies looking for cheaper labor and looking for analyst and associates. Finding mid to senior level opportunities have been difficult. I’d like to only rely on SL for opportunities in the Southeast but feel that SL needs to beef up their connections.
I believe the talent shortage, particularly in CRE banking and finance, will continue to have an impact. There is a lack of education in this area at the undergraduate level, and credit training programs have become practically nonexistent. Institutions need to take a strong proactive approach to fill the talent gap and focus on both recruiting and training for these positions.
I am seeking a new position or new consulting roles within the industry in the Southeast within emerging retail concepts or franchises but can’t find anything. I also need someone to review my resume to make sure that I’m presenting myself correctly.
I am cautiously optimistic. I switched jobs this last year due to layoffs at my previous firm. The new firm is in a much better financial position, but it could change, and change quickly.
I am anticipating the next year to be as fast paced as 2018 with a shortage of good help.
I am a 58-year-old female who left a position which was untenable in June. I have not yet found a new position and I am hoping I am still a viable candidate in the job market. I have my PMP and I am contacted constantly by IT recruiters. I do not have information technology experience. I have learned that applicant tracking systems are truly what will get you an interview, and am hoping my skills, experience and business acumen will get me an opportunity.
Hope more opportunities for mid-level of work.
Hiring techs and engineers remains difficult.
Entry level talent challenges – expectations of rapid advancement present challenges for employers as many young people are reluctant to “pay their dues” and spend time learning the nuts and bolts of the business.
Employers continue to hire less qualified personnel to handle major responsibilities without the proper skills, knowledge and experience and are unwilling to properly compensate the ones that do.
Employers are looking for skills that are often honed by many years of experience, but they are unwilling to pay salaries that approach senior PM wages in 2007. There is no gap in available talent, only in corporate pay. Those with the good judgement and experience are going out on their own, in frustration. Meanwhile, there seems to be a noticeable slowdown in active projects in the pipeline. Prospects are slowing down or stalling.
CRE hiring is getting so difficult that companies are being forced to hire woefully unqualified people. It is “dumbing down” the industry.
Can’t find work in the real estate / construction / facilities industry. Been interviewed 44 times in the last 3 years across 25 different companies. My age is the main reason. One interviewer even made a negative comment on my age.
At my senior level, employers prefer introductions and referrals rather than responses to postings. I use postings as a pointer to develop connections into organizations with needs.
As one in his early 60’s finding work has been difficult. I do not see this changing even with a talent shortage.
As GM for a resort, biggest challenge is finding qualified talent either in-house or for vendors; labor rates are significantly increasing to attract even mediocre candidates.
Ageism has reduced my options tremendously.
60-year-old white male senior executive who been self-employed for past 5 years is virtually not hirable. Too bad, I have top experience and willing to work for less but can’t get to that part of the conversation to explain.
a tight labor market
Would like to view results of this
Will be choppy
What will be your next question to me? Will it come from a real person or a computer on someone’s kitchen table?
Uncertainty in Washington has caused volatility in the stock market and in the boardroom of all companies. Executives are less likely to move forward with large capital expenditures and hiring when major policy shifts and international relations are treated hastily. I expect for this to continue and potentially worsen should the President be forced to lose his office. While I would support his outing, it would negatively impact the economy in the short term.
The year ahead looks very good, for employment and opportunities!
The decade-long economic run makes new acquisitions risky. There is a tug between rigid underwriting and the need to place capital.
Seems like a race to bottom of companies trying to placate new hires rather than retain
People say that talent is running short yet if you are 55+ and want to work, the age-ist attitude in R/E precludes that from happening.
Oversupply of capital seeking fewer “safe” investments will continue to squeeze margins and force many lenders seeking higher yield to take on riskier investments. There is a lack of eyes on the loans and assets in our portfolio to spot cracks and monitor borrowers, many of whom will be on the edge if the music slows. When trouble starts, I fear we won’t have the right resources with recession experience to lead us through the downturn.
Our family of companies continue to experience more and more growth each year… moreover, this presents many opportunities, as well many challenges for our HR Department! Looking forward to what lies ahead!
Millennials Are getting older so will need to work longer and harder for buying largest items. Hopefully the talent pool will begin to reflect this… something the seasoned has been doing for 20-30 years!
Lower rents, increased product & labor costs
It’s becoming increasingly harder to find good employees. We have found it a better option to invest resources into existing employees and also look at part time employees with specific skill sets. I believe that the market is still strong and will continue to remain that way for another 2 years.
It looks like markets are anticipating the Trump Depression.
Interesting time as a corporate real estate rep, with the influx of flexible office providers, remote workers, etc.
In the real estate downturn of 2008 time frame, a number of people left the real estate industry due to there being no jobs available. Many have not returned. Now that we are seeing some real promise again across many markets, there is a shortage of talent. Especially in that 25-35 year old age range. It ends up working out to my advantage as I do executive search in the real estate business.
I’m a senior level CRE person with 20 years’ experience. While I’ve had many phone interviews, I’ve had very few in person interviews and I believe that age & gender discrimination have affected my job search. I do have prospects, but feel my personal networking has been the best resource vs. Select leaders, Indeed, Linkedin, Career builders, etc. It would be nice if recruiters would give more merit to experienced candidates whom are willing to be mentors to the younger generation.
I would be extremely cautious about taking a new acquisitions or lending position. The market has been at the peak for too long and at some point, if not in 2019 then not too far into the future a recession is coming.
I think we will enter a recession of epic proportions in 2019/2020 & believe the years of prosperity, security, & safety are never coming back
I signed up with a real estate school, but the terminologies used are not familiar to me – I need in-class / face to face FREE training – to learn the terminologies – email me a real estate group in Sacramento, CA offering FREE training – here’s my email – firstname.lastname@example.org – we’ll go from there – thanks!
I had to take a job outside of my career path because the demand for my role and income requirements were not available
I feel that the quietness running up to the end of the year will result in an uptick in acquisitions and development in 2019. I am quietly confident for the shape of the US economic climate but in this market, I continue to feel uncertainty.
I do not expect the current robust employment market to continue due to instability in both world and national politics. Expect a turn down in the economy.
I believe the year ahead will bring much uncertainly. In my role now, I see a lot of consolidation efforts and corporate downsizing in terms of space needs. It feels companies are bracing for the downward turn in the economy.
I am concerned about the economy in 2019.
I am a believer and I am sure IA and ioT will help us and the RE FM market
Hope to advance my career in Real Estate
Flat market on high end segment. Increase local market on medium segment. Like rentals
Expect little change from 2018
Currently looking for employment for a Regional Facilities Manager position in Charlotte North Carolina.
Continued specialization in jobs and more flexibility in work location. The changes will affect office locations and sizes
Construction and renovation loans are the path to success in 2018!
Bumpy economics with continued uncertainty for business.
At some point, deal activity has to slow…that would be a problem for me.
As Fannie, Freddie and FHA become more lenient regarding work history and ratios, 2008 will be here again soon. Mortgage loan quality is very poor.
Amazing opportunities abound for those willing to work hard, deliver results, keep their eye on new roles and network like crazy
Already answered survey but here is a great link to an article which I feel is where the market is at: https://wolfstreet.com/2018/12/14/winter-is-coming-to-commercial-real-estate/
AI and hiring software sifting through candidates, unfortunately eliminates some that are qualified, not taking into experience, but rather other requirements ahead of experience, over past successes.
Affordable housing industry real estate professionals are very difficult to find, and a shortage is impacting companies across the board. It isn’t an easy transition for market rate real estate professionals to transition into affordable housing because of the complexity involved in the development. However, we are hiring and looking for dedicated and passionate individuals to continue the work we do.
Make sure you reconnect with contacts and clients you worked with in troubled assets and REO in the past while creating as many commissionable opportunities as you can for yourself. Stay lean in your expenditures and preserve cash for opportunities that may arise if things do soften as predicted in the next two years.
2019 will be there year folks overstretch. If there is a correction it will be late ’19, but probably 2020. Big lenders and pension funds will begin moving into defensive strategies, which will dry up capital available and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
It is going to be a very bad year for Real Estate. I am finding that if you are not a Democrat no one will deal with you! What is WRONG with this country! It is no longer a Free Country…now we have to bow to the Democrats!
I think we will see a housing slowdown as interest rates have climbed and as more and more millennials saddled with debt enter the job market. Wages will stabilize and wage growth will diminish. I think employment will also stabilize or grow slightly depending upon GDP. I also feel thought that this slowdown will lead to a MINOR recession (probably 2020) though not what we saw in 2008. The Trump tariff wars will end up being next-to-nothing as China will realize that the American economy is not as fragile as their own. The Chinese will artificially push their prices lower to absorb the Tariffs and maintain market share.
I think the market is good, but I see it faltering in the near future. Rental rates, especially from the REITs and Grocer owned centers have grown at an unsustainable level for most retailers. They’re arguing because Starbucks is paying “X” then I should – I can’t! My margins are not 3000% like a cup of coffee. These “experience” retailers and gyms, clinics, etc. do not draw the frequent shoppers most retailers need. Rents need to come down and I think we’re headed towards a market crash.
I think it will be a slow roll to a downturn.
I see recession starting to set in. Already seeing market changing here and slowing down here.
I had to change cities for family, and switching markets has proven difficult, but expected, in real estate development.
Hiring remains the same or slows from last year. Global economy will falter due to Trump’s presidency. AI continues to replace some job functions.
Due to a host of uncertainties (some real and others not) the year will likely start-off slow in terms of investment and credit activity.
Will remain difficult to find well qualified individuals who actually want to work
While the economists I have heard over the last few weeks indicate 2019 and 2020 will continue to be strong, I am gravely concerned about the global and US economies. The sharp increases in consumer and US government debt cause me great concern – as interest rates rise, interest payments/debt service will also rise, putting stress on personal, state, and the US budgets. This, combined with the high level of dysfunction in Washington, makes me very worried about the upcoming two years. To further answer one of the questions above, I’m not exploring new career opportunities per se, but I am always keeping my ear to the ground for great opportunities for me, or for other folks with whom I network.
Very challenging if business is real estate-centric. Many properties are highly leveraged, esp. multi-family, where the debt service, property taxes, property insurance etc. takes a huge sum of gross revenue. Add in eviction charges, legal services, etc. for tenant turnover, the see what is left for operation charges, capital improvements, reserves, salaries and then little profit. there is a ceiling that tenants will pay for rent. Many less than desirable properties do not get true credit worthy tenants because of the location, tenant mix, and maintenance. Forget amenities. Superficial upgrades of FF&E in kitchens, baths and flooring are not sufficient. Additional misc. add-on charges just price them out of renewing, or even moving in in the first place. Corporate property owners do not visit their properties as a “secret-shopper” to understand the perception of their property from prospective and current tenants.
Tight job market with technology being a potential disruptor. I expect a recession to start hitting as election campaigns begin. Fear of a democratic sweep of 2020 elections will force equity market sell-offs and paralyze business spending.
Things are happening fast. We think we have control over the what’s happening in our office but unfortunately, it’s the majority versus the person leading the task. Irrespective if it’s the right thing to do or not. Speed and bold personality always tend to get what they want. I find it difficult to stay on track. Because no matter what the plan is something happens to distract us. We have to continually remind ourselves of our goals and who we are.
There’s a perceived anxiety of when the next recession is going to hit. That uncertainty is already being reflected in decision makers’ willingness to invest in their businesses.
There will be a small correction in the stock market. Combined with a minor recession (6-9 months) jobs will decrease by 1.5%. MF housing will be hit hardest among RE asset classes due to oversupply of product and a less economically favorable situation for workers. Firms who have been amassing capital reserves over the past couple years will have deep pockets primed and ready to snatch up anyone who turns out to be over leveraged or walking in quick sand.
The market will soften. However, there will be no recession until at least 2020 based on everything I am reading.
The market is starting to show signs of capital going after dumb deals. The market seems frothy. Interest Rates are going to play a huge role in the year ahead.
Recession worries will impact absorption of space already in the pipeline.
Preparing for downturn; CRE values falling, investors moving into cash.
Overall the economic may go down.
NOT GOOD FOR REAL ESTATE MARKET.
My expertise is in commercial real estate. the last few years, specifically the end of 2016 and the first half of 2017 were the peak of the commercial real estate market (which includes all residential properties with 5+ units). the housing market is rebounding at a fairly substantial rate, and many fears that oversaturation of the market, when coupled with poor lending will lead to another bubble. these two markets are very related; as investors rationalize their expectations for property values in the commercial real estate, so too will the values of houses begin to stagnate. Of course, we’ve been here before (not referring to the housing crisis), and that’s because the markets are cyclical. people fear losing value and don’t believe the market will go back up because it’s an unknown. this thinking is justifiable; we can only speculate what will happen in 5-10 years based on what we know now. but I believe our faith in the market can and will be justified if we play our cards right. the biggest factor to both of these markets is the FED and our own government. As the Fed raises the cost to borrow, the value people are willing to pay for investment real estate will decrease (much to their chagrin). As our president implements tariffs on goods like steel, the cost to develop will increase and that can have an effect on housing costs, turnover and deliveries in 2019. my point is this; we can only speculate on what we know, and we should be concerned with our government and external forces and how they will respond to the economy in the coming year.
I run a vertically integrated group of firms involved in Real Estate Private Equity, Design-Build construction and Hedge Fund investments. Our experience is that every day we have access to more data and information, but university graduates are ill prepared to do anything worthwhile with it and unwilling to invest the time and effort to improve their skills and performance. I find that most college grads, except those from very elite schools, lack high level mathematical skills even with Master’s Degrees. These grads lack sufficient facts, the ability to apply them, evaluate them and much less integrate and synthesize facts to solve problems, much less innovate. As the experience work force ages and retires, there is a huge talent gap left behind. We are expecting a significant global slowdown in 2019 and are sitting on cash to benefit from over-optimistic developers and investors who are over-leveraged. We expect continued reduction in liquidity and forced liquidation of projects. Credit spreads are widening, growth slowing, average wages are not improving enough to provide a catalyst for most marginal projects. Over the last 7 years developers have done projects because they could and not because they should, most of those projects with marginal fundamentals will deteriorate; they are already running for the doors, but there is no liquidity to bail them out. It is estimated that 30% of the firms in the S&P 500 are Zombie Companies, meaning they are surviving on borrowed funds, they have no profits to distribute to owners. These companies have no reason to survive a down-turn, most won’t and shouldn’t. The same type of correction will take place in Real Estate. This may be the pause that refreshes, cleans-up the deadwood and incompetence in the market and returns the markets to a long-term growth based on fundamentals and not unsustainable free money from Monetary Policy.